Foresight and futures analysis in small-scale agriculture: the Valencian Huerta as a methodological laboratory

Abstract

The PROMETEO 2024 CIPROM/2023/32 project 'Foresight and Futures Analysis of Agricultural Products from the Huerta of the Valencia Region' proposes and validates a systematic futurization methodology applied to small-scale farming systems. The framework integrates qualitative Design Thinking techniques with quantitative analysis based on semantic projections, natural language processing (NLP), and generative artificial intelligence. The paper presents the project foundations, the complete methodological chain running from participatory problem detection to technological implementation, and the main results obtained to date: (i) a structured diagnosis of the Valencian agricultural sector's problems based on interviews and documentary analysis; (ii) a stochastic Gamma-based model for assessing cost-efficiency thresholds in fragmented parcels; (iii) a sustainability-indicator system focused on water resources and adapted to non-industrial farms; (iv) IoT monitoring platforms for early detection of downy mildew; and (v) ongoing analysis of local markets and marketing channels for Huerta products. Results show that combining quantitative foresight with community participation enables the generation of actionable future scenarios for smallholder farmers, contributing to the Sustainable Development Goals.